Hugh Hendry – Top 1% Hedgefund Manager – The Truth – BE FEARFUL

Fed Cuts 3/4 pts.

March 18, 2008: The street wanted a full percentage point rate cut but the Fed only gave them 3/4, Wall St. cheered anyway with the Dow closing up over 400 points. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 vaulted 4.2%. Volume was slightly lower on the NYSE spoiling a follow-through day for the DOW. The pundits on CNBC are cheering the end of the credit crisis. I think we may be just beginning.

Oil got back all of yesterday’s losses and was up 3.7% to $109.42. Gold closed up $1.70 to $1004.30. Banks and brokers rallied hard. Lehman Bros. got back yesterday’s massive losses and closed up over 43%. FC Stone also got back its massive losses closing up over 44%.

If the Federal Reserve plans to bail out every major financial institution that’s in trouble this could well run into the trillions of dollars. With real estate prices collapsing 20% since this summer in southern California and sizable losses in other ‘bubble’ areas like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, etc., this is threatening to take down the financial system as we know it.

The Fed is also signaling that it will do what ever it takes and will add more liquidity if needed. Will this ‘tsunami of liquidity’ be enough to help the $11 trillion US mortgage market? Can it save scores of shaky banks, brokerages and over-leveraged hedge-funds like Carlyle Capital ($21 billion fund who used 32:1 leverage!) from imploding?

CRAMER: “BEAR STEARNS IS NOT IN TROUBLE”

Dollar Collapse Continues

MARCH 5, 2008: Commodities led the way again. The Nasdaq was up 0.6% making this 2 days of gains in a row for the markets. It appears that the index is headed up to test its 21-day moving average at around 2300.

Commodities continued their bull market run with oil shooting up $5 to over $104 a barrel on supply shortages and flat Saudi production. The spike in crude also sent gold and silver up to new highs. Gold actually hit the illusive $1000 an ounce milestone on the June futures contract today. The sinking dollar hit all-time lows again.

Solar, steel, metals, gold/silver, and oil/gas stocks were strong while banks, financial, and insurance stocks were weak.

JA Solar vaulted 9%. Sunpower, First Solar, So. Peru Copper, Suntech, and Yamana Gold gained 5%. Research In Motion lost 3%.

Here are the top 10 leading groups: Fertilizers, Gold/Silver, Oil/Gas Producers, Farm Machinery, Ores, Steel, Solar Energy, Agricultural Ops, Oil/Gas Drillers, and Mining Machinery. We have to ask ourselves if this is really a stock market rally or a commodities rally? Is inflation really taking off globally evidenced by soaring food, energy, gold, and raw materials prices. I think so.

The stock market indexes have tested their down trending 50-day moving averages from an ‘overbought’ position and failed. IBD has now switched from ‘Market in a Confirmed Rally’ to ‘Rally Under Pressure.’ Gold, silver, grains, and oil are all moving higher in very definite up trends. We may be witnessing a ‘disconnect’ between commodities and stocks.

It’s best to stay on the sidelines in stock markets like this and not get sucked into ‘leaderless’ bear markets. Patience, Grasshopper! More at www.goldenticker.com

CNN: The Next Great Depression Is On It’s Way!

Markets Ignore Inflation Report

FEBRUARY 20, 2008: Inflation showed up again today in the ‘hot’ CPI number. In January, core inflation rose 0.4% vs the forecasted 0.3%. Minutes from the last Fed meeting however indicated that the they would do everything they could to keep the economy from going into a recession. The Nasdaq celebrated by rallying 0.9% on heavier but average volume.

Retailers, oil drillers, and steel producers were strong today. Medical related, solars, and automobile stocks sold off. Transocean was up 7%. Research in Motion advanced 5%, and fertilizer maker Mosaic moved up 4%. Suntech Power dropped 12% and Sunpower lost 4%.

The Nasdaq is now 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down.

Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day and see top-rated stocks breaking out of proper bases before committing money to the long side of stocks.

Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

“Real Homes of Genius” – What were we thinking!

Oil Closes Over $100 – A New Record

FEBRUARY 19, 2008: Oil closed above $100 for the first time today sending inflation fears rippling through the markets. The Bank of England may not be cutting rates soon due to inflation worries as well. It was also announced over the weekend that the U.K. will be nationalizing the failed lender Northern Rock, essentially taking on it’s massive sub-prime losses. The Nasdaq fell 0.7% on below average volume.Precious metals, steel, and oil related stocks were strong. These are typically seen as inflation hedges. Retail and finance stocks were among the weakest groups. Mechel Oao Steel was up 10%, fertilizer maker Mosaic advanced 6%, and leading gold miner broke out of a triangle formation and shot up 6%. Chinese solar Yingli Green Energy lost 8%, and Bidu.com lost 5% and fell further below its 200-day line. The Nasdaq is now almost 20% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day and see top-rated stocks breaking out of proper bases before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com INFLATION CAN BE FUN!

Nasdaq Down 2-Days In a Row

HERE COMES ANOTHER BUBBLE (music video-comedy)

FEBRUARY 15, 2008: Stocks and volume were mixed today on this fairly quiet options expirations day. Monday’s holiday may have contained things a bit. The Nasdaq fell 0.5% and was down for the second day in a row after IBD called a ‘confirmed rally.’ They have since changed to ‘rally under pressure.’

International Oil producers, food, and medical stocks were strong. Biotechs, solars, home builders, and semicondutors were weak. Priceline.com roared up 21% after beating earnings estimates. Yinglee Green Energy fell 13% after missing views. Chipotle Mexican Grill continues to fall hard.

The Nasdaq is now over 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day and see top-rated stocks breaking out of proper bases before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

SURPRISING RETAIL SALES FUEL GAINS:

FEBRUARY 13, 2008: SURPRISING RETAIL SALES FUEL GAINS: Experts were expecting a .3% dip but they got a .3% gain instead which sparked optimism among the bulls sending stocks higher. The Nasdaq advanced 2% in lighter trade than yesterday. First Solar beat street estimates and vaulted 30% today. Other solar stocks were also strong like JASO, STP, and SPWR. Ben Bernanke speaks tomorrow and options expiration is on Friday so we could have a few more days of strength at the least. The DOW and S&P appear to be headed towards their 50-day moving averages which has been a place of resistance. The Nasdaq is now 17% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com Legendary Investor Julian Robertson talks about the dollar and recession.

Stocks & Oil Rise

FEBRUARY 11, 2008: The Nasdaq was up 0.7% but it continued its trend of lighter volume on up days and heavier trade on down days. This is opposite of what you want to see if you’re bullish. Alternative energy, steel, farm machinery, and agriculture related stocks were strong today. Russian steel maker MTL was up 11%. Suntech and Sunpower were both up 11% as well. Oil was up another $2 on tensions with Hugo Chavez and Venezuela. Finance and insurance companies were weak. The Nasdaq is now 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

STARBUCKS: The “Kid From Brookly” goes to Starbucks. Warning: Foul Language

Nasdaq Off 4.5% for the Week

FEBRUARY 8, 2008: Stocks were mixed today and ended the week down as the ‘bear’ continues to slowly maul the ‘bulls.’ For the week the Nasdaq was off 4.5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.6% wiping out last weeks gains. Energy stocks did well as oil shot up $4. Mining and steel stocks also did well. MTL was up 7%. Transports, financials, and retail stocks were weak. The Nasdaq is now 19.5% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com  The E-Trade baby – evidence that the markets can make you puke lately.

Inflation Fears Send Stocks Lower for a Third Day

FEBRUARY 6, 2008: Markets fell again on comments from Philly Fed President Charles Plosser who said that inflation is still a problem. This put a damper on traders hopes for further rate cuts. The Nasdaq lost 1.3% and made a new 16 month closing low. After the bell Cisco warned of slowing profits which could send stocks lower tomorrow. In the past 3 days most of the gains from last weeks historic run have been wiped out. This is the nature of corrections and bear markets as the bulls still hold on to hopes of higher prices. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Zimbabwe – What 1200% annual inflation can do to a country.

Recession Fears Torpedo Markets

FEBRUARY 5, 2008: Recession fears gripped the markets today and sent the Nasdaq down 73pts or 3.1% in heavy volume. In the past 2 days most of the gains from last weeks historic run have been wiped out. This is the nature of corrections and bear markets as the bulls still hold on to hopes of higher prices. The Institute for Supply Management’s service-sector index dived below 50 in January, falling well short of estimates. This is the biggest drop in the history of the index which began in 1997. The service sector makes up to 80% of the American economy and this kind of weakness could be foretelling our GDP going negative for the first time in 6 years. Merrill Lynch annalists are saying there is now a big chance of an inter-meeting rate cut, but will it help? Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

“Our Country Is Technically Bankrupt”- Glenn Beck  ( A must see video)

Market Falls on Light Post Super-Bowl Trade

FEBRUARY 4, 2008: The Nasdaq fell 1.3% on light post super-bowl volume. The move down was led by last week’s leaders like financials and retail. Google fell another $20 today and closed below $500 for the first time in 6 months. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

HOW TO GET RICH THE DONALD TRUMP WAY (Frank TV) Funny!

WALL ST. YAWNS AT RATE CUT

JANUARY 30, 2008: The Fed in a desperate attempt to prop up the US stock market cut another 1/2% on the Fed funds rate bringing it down to 3%. This makes it a 1.25% rate cut in just over a week. They also cut the discount rate by 1/2% as well. Markets initially rallied on the news and then sold off into the close as the smart money headed for the exits. The Nasdaq reversed off its highs in heavy volume and closed down 0.4%. The small caps as measured by the S&P 600 were hit harder and fell 1.1%. Financials should have rallied on this news but the XLF fell 2%. So much for the Fed being able to manipulate the markets. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is now decidedly down.  Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo cashed in on $130 million in stock and it was just reported yesterday that 33% of their subprime mortgages are delinquent. Something is terribly wrong here.

DOW Crashes 64%-Robert Prechter Explains

 

DOW Crashes 64%-Robert Prechter explains where to “park” your money.

Fed Will Slash Interest Rates Tomorrow- Over 1% in a Week.

JANUARY 29, 2008: The Nasdaq gained 0.3% but volume was light again as traders await tomorrow’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates by 1/2%. That would be a 1.25% cut in just a week, the biggest in 25 years. Some are saying that the Fed may have to cut rates below the current 2.5% inflation rate. Durable goods orders came in strong which may lessen the chance of a 1/2 point cut. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq has been rallying lately on falling volume-a sign that this unconfirmed rally could fail. Former leaders like Google, Amazon.com, and Apple are still below their 200-day moving averages-a major sign of weakness. Potash, Monsanto, and Deere have been holding up better than most stocks but are rallying on decreasing or ‘wedging’ volume. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Paul Krugman warns of housing bubble and financial turmoil in September, 2006.

Housing and Stock Bubbles Hurt – These Don’t!

Things may be getting really scary on the global financial scene, but always remember to smile no matter what happens.

JANUARY 25, 2008: The nascent 2-day rally could not make it a third day as all 4 major indexes staged a ‘bearish reversal’ but pulled back in lighter volume. The Nasdaq started out strong but lost 1.5% and was down 0.6% for the week. It’s hard to believe that the Fed did a ’shock and awe’ surprise rate cut of 3/4% this week. This is an indication that we are in a severe correction. Credit concerns got the blame again today for the fall. The light volume today may be due to traders staying on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates further. Transports, fertilizers, and solar stocks were strong today. Finance, retailers, and computer related stocks were weak. Some leaders were SPWR +6%, MTL +7%. Notable losers were YGE -5%, RIMM -4%, AAPL – 4%. This latest rally has the feel of ’short covering’ and is by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Rick Santelli vs Ben Bernanke

Rick Santelli has been dead on during this current financial crisis. In this video he
critisises Ben Bernanke’s comments that a lower dollar does not affect prices at home.

The late economist Milton Friedman discusses greed and capitalism.

The late-great Milton Friedman discusses greed and capitalism with Phil Donahue.

JANUARY 23, 2008: After a brisk morning sell-off the indexes rallied strongly reversing earlier losses.The Nasdaq was up 1.1% and erased a 3% loss, the Dow rallied 2.1% after a huge 600pt intra-day swing. Financials, Building, and Transport stocks led the way up. Apple was hit hard today and was down over 20% intra-day before recovering some of its losses. News that bond insurers MBIA and AMBAC may get some help appeared to stoke the markets. Today’s strong rally had the feel of ’short covering’ and is by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

The Inevitable Collapse of the US Dollar – A “must see” video.

Peter Schiff has been a voice of reason for many years and now many of his dire predictions are materializing.

The Stock Market Will Crash Tomorrow-Jan. 22, 08