FEBRUARY 15, 2008: Stocks and volume were mixed today on this fairly quiet options expirations day. Monday’s holiday may have contained things a bit. The Nasdaq fell 0.5% and was down for the second day in a row after IBD called a ‘confirmed rally.’ They have since changed to ‘rally under pressure.’
International Oil producers, food, and medical stocks were strong. Biotechs, solars, home builders, and semicondutors were weak. Priceline.com roared up 21% after beating earnings estimates. Yinglee Green Energy fell 13% after missing views. Chipotle Mexican Grill continues to fall hard.
The Nasdaq is now over 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day and see top-rated stocks breaking out of proper bases before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
FEBRUARY 12, 2008: ‘BUFFET BOUNCE’ FIZZLES – The Nasdaq ran up 1.3% in early morning trading but the gain fizzled as the index closed down a fraction and was turned away at it’s 21-day moving average. In bear markets, indexes are usually strong in the morning and weak towards the close. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway offered to insure $800 in bonds, but they will only back less risky municipal bonds. The Nasdaq is now 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
FEBRUARY 8, 2008: Stocks were mixed today and ended the week down as the ‘bear’ continues to slowly maul the ‘bulls.’ For the week the Nasdaq was off 4.5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.6% wiping out last weeks gains. Energy stocks did well as oil shot up $4. Mining and steel stocks also did well. MTL was up 7%. Transports, financials, and retail stocks were weak. The Nasdaq is now 19.5% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
The E-Trade baby – evidence that the markets can make you puke lately.
FEBRUARY 4, 2008: The Nasdaq fell 1.3% on light post super-bowl volume. The move down was led by last week’s leaders like financials and retail. Google fell another $20 today and closed below $500 for the first time in 6 months. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
HOW TO GET RICH THE DONALD TRUMP WAY (Frank TV) Funny!
FEBRUARY 1, 2008: The Nasdaq rallied 1% today and 3.75% for the week on improving volume. Small caps have been the strongest and the S&P 600 is approaching its 50-day moving average (see chart). Yahoo vaulted 48% on take-over talks with Microsoft in its effort to compete with Google. Intuitive Surgical, one of our favorites of the last rally, gapped up 20% in heavy volume on good earnings. Google fell further below its 200-day line in heavy volume after missing their numbers. The street was expecting 70,000 new jobs but non-farm payroll numbers showed 17,000 jobs were lost – a surprise hit. This was the first drop in 4-years. Traders are betting that this weakness forces the Fed to cut interest rates further next month. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have brought us a “counter-trend” rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in “melt-down” mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
Jim Rogers tells the Financial Times that “Bernanke has been a disaster.” (video)
JANUARY 29, 2008: The Nasdaq gained 0.3% but volume was light again as traders await tomorrow’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates by 1/2%. That would be a 1.25% cut in just a week, the biggest in 25 years. Some are saying that the Fed may have to cut rates below the current 2.5% inflation rate. Durable goods orders came in strong which may lessen the chance of a 1/2 point cut. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq has been rallying lately on falling volume-a sign that this unconfirmed rally could fail. Former leaders like Google, Amazon.com, and Apple are still below their 200-day moving averages-a major sign of weakness. Potash, Monsanto, and Deere have been holding up better than most stocks but are rallying on decreasing or ‘wedging’ volume. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com
Paul Krugman warns of housing bubble and financial turmoil in September, 2006.
JANUARY 28, 2008: The Nasdaq gained 1% but volume was light as traders await Wednesday’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates by 1/2%. The Nasdaq has been rallying lately on falling volume-a sign that this unconfirmed rally could fail. Former leaders like Google, Amazon.com, and Apple are still below their 200-day moving averages-a major sign of weakness. Potash, Monsanto, and Deere have been holding up better than most stocks but are rallying on decreasing or ‘wedging’ volume. Laggard groups like homebuilders, financials, and retailers were strong today giving this latest rally has the feel of ’short covering. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com
JANUARY 22, 2008: The Nasdaq officially ventured into ‘Bear Market’ territory today when it was down over 20% from it’s October 31st peak. It closed down 2% today after being down as much as 5.1%. Mining, Medical, and Metals stocks were weakest today. Stocks were in trouble as Hong Kong lost 8.6%, Shanghai dropped 7.2%, and the Nikkei swooned 5.6% yesterday. Fearing a ‘free fall’ this morning, the Fed dropped it’s funds rate by 3/4%, the most since 1984. This was also the first inter-meeting cut since 9/11. After the bell Apple missed revenues numbers and was trading down in the mid $130’s in after-hours trading.
Nasdaq enters “bear” territory.
January 22, 2008JANUARY 22, 2008: The Nasdaq officially ventured into ‘Bear Market’ territory today when it was down over 20% from it’s October 31st peak. It closed down 2% today after being down as much as 5.1%. Mining, Medical, and Metals stocks were weakest today. Stocks were in trouble as Hong Kong lost 8.6%, Shanghai dropped 7.2%, and the Nikkei swooned 5.6% yesterday. Fearing a ‘free fall’ this morning, the Fed dropped it’s funds rate by 3/4%, the most since 1984. This was also the first inter-meeting cut since 9/11. After the bell Apple missed revenues numbers and was trading down in the mid $130’s in after-hours trading.
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