Hugh Hendry – Top 1% Hedgefund Manager – The Truth – BE FEARFUL

Dollar Collapse Continues

MARCH 5, 2008: Commodities led the way again. The Nasdaq was up 0.6% making this 2 days of gains in a row for the markets. It appears that the index is headed up to test its 21-day moving average at around 2300.

Commodities continued their bull market run with oil shooting up $5 to over $104 a barrel on supply shortages and flat Saudi production. The spike in crude also sent gold and silver up to new highs. Gold actually hit the illusive $1000 an ounce milestone on the June futures contract today. The sinking dollar hit all-time lows again.

Solar, steel, metals, gold/silver, and oil/gas stocks were strong while banks, financial, and insurance stocks were weak.

JA Solar vaulted 9%. Sunpower, First Solar, So. Peru Copper, Suntech, and Yamana Gold gained 5%. Research In Motion lost 3%.

Here are the top 10 leading groups: Fertilizers, Gold/Silver, Oil/Gas Producers, Farm Machinery, Ores, Steel, Solar Energy, Agricultural Ops, Oil/Gas Drillers, and Mining Machinery. We have to ask ourselves if this is really a stock market rally or a commodities rally? Is inflation really taking off globally evidenced by soaring food, energy, gold, and raw materials prices. I think so.

The stock market indexes have tested their down trending 50-day moving averages from an ‘overbought’ position and failed. IBD has now switched from ‘Market in a Confirmed Rally’ to ‘Rally Under Pressure.’ Gold, silver, grains, and oil are all moving higher in very definite up trends. We may be witnessing a ‘disconnect’ between commodities and stocks.

It’s best to stay on the sidelines in stock markets like this and not get sucked into ‘leaderless’ bear markets. Patience, Grasshopper! More at www.goldenticker.com

CNN: The Next Great Depression Is On It’s Way!

Nasdaq Down 2-Days In a Row

HERE COMES ANOTHER BUBBLE (music video-comedy)

FEBRUARY 15, 2008: Stocks and volume were mixed today on this fairly quiet options expirations day. Monday’s holiday may have contained things a bit. The Nasdaq fell 0.5% and was down for the second day in a row after IBD called a ‘confirmed rally.’ They have since changed to ‘rally under pressure.’

International Oil producers, food, and medical stocks were strong. Biotechs, solars, home builders, and semicondutors were weak. Priceline.com roared up 21% after beating earnings estimates. Yinglee Green Energy fell 13% after missing views. Chipotle Mexican Grill continues to fall hard.

The Nasdaq is now over 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day and see top-rated stocks breaking out of proper bases before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

SURPRISING RETAIL SALES FUEL GAINS:

FEBRUARY 13, 2008: SURPRISING RETAIL SALES FUEL GAINS: Experts were expecting a .3% dip but they got a .3% gain instead which sparked optimism among the bulls sending stocks higher. The Nasdaq advanced 2% in lighter trade than yesterday. First Solar beat street estimates and vaulted 30% today. Other solar stocks were also strong like JASO, STP, and SPWR. Ben Bernanke speaks tomorrow and options expiration is on Friday so we could have a few more days of strength at the least. The DOW and S&P appear to be headed towards their 50-day moving averages which has been a place of resistance. The Nasdaq is now 17% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com Legendary Investor Julian Robertson talks about the dollar and recession.

Stocks & Oil Rise

FEBRUARY 11, 2008: The Nasdaq was up 0.7% but it continued its trend of lighter volume on up days and heavier trade on down days. This is opposite of what you want to see if you’re bullish. Alternative energy, steel, farm machinery, and agriculture related stocks were strong today. Russian steel maker MTL was up 11%. Suntech and Sunpower were both up 11% as well. Oil was up another $2 on tensions with Hugo Chavez and Venezuela. Finance and insurance companies were weak. The Nasdaq is now 19% off it’s October highs. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. may have brought us a ‘counter-trend’ rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in ‘melt-down’ mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

STARBUCKS: The “Kid From Brookly” goes to Starbucks. Warning: Foul Language

WALL ST. RALLIES ON MORE RATE CUT HOPES

FEBRUARY 1, 2008: The Nasdaq rallied 1% today and 3.75% for the week on improving volume. Small caps have been the strongest and the S&P 600 is approaching its 50-day moving average (see chart). Yahoo vaulted 48% on take-over talks with Microsoft in its effort to compete with Google. Intuitive Surgical, one of our favorites of the last rally, gapped up 20% in heavy volume on good earnings. Google fell further below its 200-day line in heavy volume after missing their numbers. The street was expecting 70,000 new jobs but non-farm payroll numbers showed 17,000 jobs were lost – a surprise hit. This was the first drop in 4-years. Traders are betting that this weakness forces the Fed to cut interest rates further next month. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have brought us a “counter-trend” rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in “melt-down” mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Jim Rogers tells the Financial Times that “Bernanke has been a disaster.” (video)

DOW Crashes 64%-Robert Prechter Explains

 

DOW Crashes 64%-Robert Prechter explains where to “park” your money.

Fed Will Slash Interest Rates Tomorrow- Over 1% in a Week.

JANUARY 29, 2008: The Nasdaq gained 0.3% but volume was light again as traders await tomorrow’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates by 1/2%. That would be a 1.25% cut in just a week, the biggest in 25 years. Some are saying that the Fed may have to cut rates below the current 2.5% inflation rate. Durable goods orders came in strong which may lessen the chance of a 1/2 point cut. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq has been rallying lately on falling volume-a sign that this unconfirmed rally could fail. Former leaders like Google, Amazon.com, and Apple are still below their 200-day moving averages-a major sign of weakness. Potash, Monsanto, and Deere have been holding up better than most stocks but are rallying on decreasing or ‘wedging’ volume. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Paul Krugman warns of housing bubble and financial turmoil in September, 2006.

Housing and Stock Bubbles Hurt – These Don’t!

Things may be getting really scary on the global financial scene, but always remember to smile no matter what happens.

JANUARY 25, 2008: The nascent 2-day rally could not make it a third day as all 4 major indexes staged a ‘bearish reversal’ but pulled back in lighter volume. The Nasdaq started out strong but lost 1.5% and was down 0.6% for the week. It’s hard to believe that the Fed did a ’shock and awe’ surprise rate cut of 3/4% this week. This is an indication that we are in a severe correction. Credit concerns got the blame again today for the fall. The light volume today may be due to traders staying on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates further. Transports, fertilizers, and solar stocks were strong today. Finance, retailers, and computer related stocks were weak. Some leaders were SPWR +6%, MTL +7%. Notable losers were YGE -5%, RIMM -4%, AAPL – 4%. This latest rally has the feel of ’short covering’ and is by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

Rick Santelli vs Ben Bernanke

Rick Santelli has been dead on during this current financial crisis. In this video he
critisises Ben Bernanke’s comments that a lower dollar does not affect prices at home.

The late economist Milton Friedman discusses greed and capitalism.

The late-great Milton Friedman discusses greed and capitalism with Phil Donahue.

JANUARY 23, 2008: After a brisk morning sell-off the indexes rallied strongly reversing earlier losses.The Nasdaq was up 1.1% and erased a 3% loss, the Dow rallied 2.1% after a huge 600pt intra-day swing. Financials, Building, and Transport stocks led the way up. Apple was hit hard today and was down over 20% intra-day before recovering some of its losses. News that bond insurers MBIA and AMBAC may get some help appeared to stoke the markets. Today’s strong rally had the feel of ’short covering’ and is by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. More info at www.goldenticker.com

The Inevitable Collapse of the US Dollar – A “must see” video.

Peter Schiff has been a voice of reason for many years and now many of his dire predictions are materializing.

Nasdaq enters “bear” territory.

JANUARY 22, 2008: The Nasdaq officially ventured into ‘Bear Market’ territory today when it was down over 20% from it’s October 31st peak. It closed down 2% today after being down as much as 5.1%. Mining, Medical, and Metals stocks were weakest today. Stocks were in trouble as Hong Kong lost 8.6%, Shanghai dropped 7.2%, and the Nikkei swooned 5.6% yesterday. Fearing a ‘free fall’ this morning, the Fed dropped it’s funds rate by 3/4%, the most since 1984. This was also the first inter-meeting cut since 9/11. After the bell Apple missed revenues numbers and was trading down in the mid $130’s in after-hours trading.

The Stock Market Will Crash Tomorrow-Jan. 22, 08

Bond Insurers MBIA and Ambac in Freefall.

It’s never pretty when your stock falls over 50% in one day.

“Our House, in the Middle of a Slump” (funny!)

Leave is again to the Brits to find a sense of humor in the all the misery of the global real estate meltdown.

Monsanto “derails” and finally succumbs to the correction.

For awhile I thought Monsanto and other fertilizer stocks would avoid this steep market correction, but this week they were all taken out to the “woodshed.” As with all bear markets, they eventually take everything down with them.

Funny! The Last Laugh – The Long Johns

Leave it to the Brits and their dry wit to come up with a skit like this.

You’ll know things are really bad when you can’t laugh at this anymore.

We’ll be watching you Ben Bernanke (Music Video)

Clever music video puts its unique spin on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the CBS (Central Banking System).

The Infamous Jim Cramer Meltdown

This is timeless! Cramer has a full and complete meltdown on CNBC as he begs Ben Bernanke to cut interest rates. Seems like Jim is still carrying lots of baggage from his failed hedge fund.