MARCH 5, 2008: Commodities led the way again. The Nasdaq was up 0.6% making this 2 days of gains in a row for the markets. It appears that the index is headed up to test its 21-day moving average at around 2300.
Commodities continued their bull market run with oil shooting up $5 to over $104 a barrel on supply shortages and flat Saudi production. The spike in crude also sent gold and silver up to new highs. Gold actually hit the illusive $1000 an ounce milestone on the June futures contract today. The sinking dollar hit all-time lows again.
Solar, steel, metals, gold/silver, and oil/gas stocks were strong while banks, financial, and insurance stocks were weak.
JA Solar vaulted 9%. Sunpower, First Solar, So. Peru Copper, Suntech, and Yamana Gold gained 5%. Research In Motion lost 3%.
Here are the top 10 leading groups: Fertilizers, Gold/Silver, Oil/Gas Producers, Farm Machinery, Ores, Steel, Solar Energy, Agricultural Ops, Oil/Gas Drillers, and Mining Machinery. We have to ask ourselves if this is really a stock market rally or a commodities rally? Is inflation really taking off globally evidenced by soaring food, energy, gold, and raw materials prices. I think so.
The stock market indexes have tested their down trending 50-day moving averages from an ‘overbought’ position and failed. IBD has now switched from ‘Market in a Confirmed Rally’ to ‘Rally Under Pressure.’ Gold, silver, grains, and oil are all moving higher in very definite up trends. We may be witnessing a ‘disconnect’ between commodities and stocks.
It’s best to stay on the sidelines in stock markets like this and not get sucked into ‘leaderless’ bear markets. Patience, Grasshopper! More at www.goldenticker.com
FEBRUARY 1, 2008: The Nasdaq rallied 1% today and 3.75% for the week on improving volume. Small caps have been the strongest and the S&P 600 is approaching its 50-day moving average (see chart). Yahoo vaulted 48% on take-over talks with Microsoft in its effort to compete with Google. Intuitive Surgical, one of our favorites of the last rally, gapped up 20% in heavy volume on good earnings. Google fell further below its 200-day line in heavy volume after missing their numbers. The street was expecting 70,000 new jobs but non-farm payroll numbers showed 17,000 jobs were lost – a surprise hit. This was the first drop in 4-years. Traders are betting that this weakness forces the Fed to cut interest rates further next month. Stimulus packages, multiple rate cuts, bail-outs, etc. have brought us a “counter-trend” rally but have failed to change the direction of the markets, which is decidedly down. Counter-trend rallies during corrections are by no means a signal to jump back in the markets. Bear market rallies can be sharp to the upside and come back down even faster. It’s best to wait for a ‘follow-through’ day before committing money to the long side of stocks. Don’t forget that the banking system is in serious trouble, the housing sector is in “melt-down” mode and the consumer feeling the pinch of higher inflation and less access to credit. More info at www.goldenticker.com
Jim Rogers tells the Financial Times that “Bernanke has been a disaster.” (video)
Rick Santelli has been dead on during this current financial crisis. In this video he
critisises Ben Bernanke’s comments that a lower dollar does not affect prices at home.
This is timeless! Cramer has a full and complete meltdown on CNBC as he begs Ben Bernanke to cut interest rates. Seems like Jim is still carrying lots of baggage from his failed hedge fund.
Why isn’t the Securities and Exchange Commission getting more involved in the whole banking sector writedown situation? Especially since the numbers are likely to get worse, not better? That’s what Jim Cramer, CNBC’s resident stock guru, wants to know.
“It’s all fiction!” he declared during a forceful exchange (see it in full in the accompanying video) on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“How can we have these levels of fiction in financials after Sarbanes-Oxley? How do people get away with this? How do they live with themselves?”
Cramer made his comments while reviewing results from Merrill. But his real consternation surrounded the insurers who cover banking investments. Some of those insurers haven’t come clean about their liabilities, Cramer speculated. Eventually they will, and then the “fiction” will disappear, he said.
The banking sector and its related industries are all too chummy, Cramer accused. That led the numbers related to mortgage investments — investments that are currently souring — to break from reality.
“I think the financial guys all belong to the same club and they got to protect each other,” he said.
Worse, those executives behind the current credit crunch are unlikely to get any punishment for their mistakes and disingenuousness about their numbers, Cramer opined.
“I’m fed up with it. The American people should be fed up with it. And the SEC should be fed up with it,” Cramer said.
The Inevitable Collapse of the US Dollar – A “must see” video.
January 23, 2008Peter Schiff has been a voice of reason for many years and now many of his dire predictions are materializing.
Tags:Alan Greenspan, ben bernanke, collapse, defecit, dollar collapse, financial crisis, gold, housing, hyper inflation, inflation, Peter Schiff, real estate, stock market, subprime crisis, video
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